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45.6 million netbooks will be sold in 2011, IDC

Paul Thurrott has done a nice job of separating hype from reality. He references IDC’s forecast that 45.6 million mininotebooks (netbooks) will be sold in 2011 and 60.3 million units in 2013. “Apple releases a successful product the iPad but it suddenly becomes The Second Coming ™. So much so that Fortune’s web-based Mac blog, Apple 2.0, has suddenly decided that–get this–the iPad is “killing” the netbook. Only in the reality distortion field could such nonsense pass as truth. Here’s the silliness:

Morgan Stanley’s Katy Huberty’s proprietary research shows … the impact of iPad and other tablets on broader gadget market, starting with netbooks. As her chart shows, sales growth of these low-cost, low-powered computing devices peaked last summer at an astonishing 641% year-over-year growth rate. It fell off a cliff in January and ….

… and these things both happened before iPad. Just saying. In the case of last summer, when netbook sales peaked, way before iPad. Before, in fact, we knew what an iPad was. But please, don’t let that get in way of your premise…

… shrank again in April — collateral damage, according to Huberty, from the January introduction and April launch of iPad,” writes Paul.


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