At Untethered conference in New York City, Forrester’s Sarah Rotman Epps laid out her projections comparing tablet sales to netbooks, laptops, and desktops. She predicts tablet sales in the U.S. will overtake netbook sales by 2012, and desktop sales by 2015. She expects 3.5 million tablets including Apple iPad and other tablets to be sold this year, growing to 20.4 million in 2015. Meanwhile, she expects desktop sales to drop from 18.7 million units in 2010 to 15.7 million units in 2015.
As a percentage of overall PC sales, tablets will grow from 6-18% in 2012 (when netbooks are estimated to account for 17% of sales. In 2013, tablet sales are projected to outstrip desktop unit sales, 21–20%. By 2015, tablets will make up 23% of PC sales in U.S., while desktops will be 18% and netbooks 17%. Only laptops will sell more in U.S., with a 42% market share.