eMarketer estimates net US search advertising revenue at Google will grow 38.9% to $10.92 billion in 2011 taking its lead over Microsoft and Yahoo! this year. That will help push Google's share of overall US search revenues to 75.9% this year, up from a 73.6% share in 2010 and a 69.8% share in 2009.
However eMarketer says that Microsoft will pass Yahoo in terms of search revenues this year, with Bing controlling 8% and Yahoo 7.9% of paid-search revenues in 2011.
Search is a heavily consolidated market, and progressively more so, with just four companies accounting for 93.6% of the ad revenues this year, and over 95% next year, eMarketer estimates.
In total eMarketer says that search revenues in the US will reach $14.4 billion this year and $17 billion next year, with Google capturing nearly 80% of that revenue in 2012. However, on a percentage basis, Microsoft's growth outpaces Google's or Yahoo's. Below are eMarketer's actual dollar projections.
eMarketer also estimates that Facebook's share of US online display ad revenues will grow to 17.7% in 2011, up from a 12.2% share last year. However, eMarketer sees Google nipping at Yahoo's heels next year. The firm says that Google will control 12.3% of display revenues vs. Yahoo's 12.5% in 2012.
Display revenues at Facebook, Yahoo and Google will total $2.87, $1.85 and $1.82 billion respectively in 2012, according to eMarketer. "Google's display revenue gains will come from three main sources: large advertisers that're already Google customers, the range of small or medium-sized businesses that've relied on search for years but are looking to expand their reach, and large-brand marketers looking to YouTube to widen their video advertising reach," Hallerman said.
Display business at Yahoo!, Microsoft and AOL will also grow this year, although each company's market share will decline as a result of Google's and Facebook's huge rise. Yahoo!'s share of the US display ad market is expected to decline to 13.1% in 2011, down from 14.4% in 2010, eMarketer estimates.
"With a projected 13.6% growth rate in 2011, Yahoo!'s display business is growing nicely--or so it would seem at first glance. But with the total display market set to increase by 24.5% in 2011, supported by even higher gains at Google and Facebook, the growth at Yahoo! looks more like a poor showing than a good one," said Hallerman.
Net US display revenues at Microsoft are expected to grow 18.7% to $602 million in 2011, up from $508 million in 2010--though the company's share of the overall US market will fall to 4.9%, down from 5.1% in 2010, eMarketer estimates.